Outside Democrats are flooding this toss-up Virginia race.
On Saturday three hundred Democrats flocked to a Spanberger office with one thing on their mind:
Defeating Republican Dave Brat in the Midterms on November 6th.
But there’s a simple explanation that clears up what’s happening.
Outside Group Pours in Funding and Staff to Defeat Tea Party Republicans
Chicago-based Progressive Turnout Project is flooding the Midterms with over $17 million to push Democrats into Congress.1
And Dave Brat’s seat is one of their top targets.
They’re racing resources to his opponent, Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
In fact, she’s top-5 on the take from this liberal group with $82,014 in independent expenditures already in her campaign’s pocket.2
But campaign cash is just the start.
You see, this group uses its millions from donors in states like Illinois, New York, and California to flood close races across the country with cash and staffers to flip seats for Democrats.
And this is the same group who’s claim to fame is flipping 10 of the 17 Republican House of Delegates seats here in Virginia in 2017.
Now they’re back, and they have Dave Brat in their cross-hairs.
Chicago Group Hopes to Defeat GOP in Virginia
On top of directly spending on Democrats, Progressive Turnout Project goes one step further.
Their model places low-paid staff recruited from across the country into the field to oppose Republicans like Dave Brat.
Specifically they target the last 6 weeks of an election paying their Fellows a stipend starting at $1,500.
The rate is great for PTP, but not so much for their staff.
In fact, that lands these fellows with just $250 a week.
That’s $6.25/hr if they work a 40 hour work week. This will hit just over $10/hr if they work the minimum 24 hours per week, but as any campaign staffer knows nobody on payroll works short hours on a campaign.4
This model allows PTP to flood districts with a high number of fellows to swing elections with their outside funds.
Brat polling behind his Democrat Opponent
Brat is running in a conservative district that Trump won in 2016.
But a late start, and being on the receiving end of outside attacks has Brat down in the polls.
And the hits against him for supporting the multi-billion dollar deficit is further hurting his chances.
The latest CNU poll places Brat one point behind among likely voters while Spanberger polls at 46% and Brat trails with 45%.4
Fortunately for Brat he’s still in competitive shape.
If his campaign can turn out enough volunteers and enthusiasm to counter outside liberal efforts he might pull out a win.
But the race is still too close to call.
Spanberger is outspending him nearly 2-1 and the polls are trending towards a Democrat victory.
Unless Brat’s base reacts quickly, this may be his last term in office.
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